Researching newspaper business models
The Copenhagen Business School will be participating in a project, sponsored by the Nordic Innovation Fund, that will investigate future business models for newspapers. One of the reasons for the Nordic (Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark) concern is the dropping circulation of paid dailies, for which free newspapers are partly blamed.
Data (click graphs to enlarge) indeed suggests free papers have had some impact in Iceland. Tabloid DV went weekly but paid daily Morgunbladid has survived with an almost stable circulation. But what about the other Nordic countries?
In Denmark paid circulation was already declining before free dailies were introduced. The decline, however, accelerated during the last years so there seems to be some substitution. Free circulation is declining in 2007 (paid circulation of this year is an estimate).
In Sweden, birthplace of Metro, free papers have been around since 1995. Before 1995 paid circulation was already slowly declining. In the first years of Metro paid circulation kept going down, although free dailies had only a moderate circulation. From 1999 to 2005 paid circulation was stable although free circulation went up. In 2006 paid circulation dropped again while free circulation (three national titles by then) increased.
Finland only has a 10 percent market share of free papers but no visible impact on paid circulation which is slowly dropping since 1995 (also before the introduction of free dailies). The interesting case, however, is Norway. No free dailies in Schibsted’s backyard but also a decline since 2000. Researching the problems of daily newspapers is a valid idea, but blaming free newspapers is probably barking up the wrong tree in most cases.